'Getting close': Outline of Colorado River drought agreement takes shape in Arizona

Ian James
The Republic | azcentral.com
Tom Buschatzke, (left) the Director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources and Ted Cooke, General Manager of the Central Arizona Project, converse during the Arizona Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan Steering Committee meeting to work on a drought contingency plan for the Colorado River at Central Arizona Project headquarters in Phoenix on November 29, 2018.

Arizona’s water agencies, cities, farmers and tribes haven’t quite sealed a Colorado River deal. But they’re getting closer. 

The outline of a new compromise proposal emerged this week and was presented at a meeting on Thursday. The plan would help Arizona join in a proposed three-state Drought Contingency Plan by spreading the impacts of the water cutbacks, providing “mitigation” water to farmers in central Arizona while paying compensation to other entities that would contribute water.

The deal, if it’s finalized, would help boost the levels of Lake Mead, which have fallen to near-record lows and are approaching a threshold that would trigger a first-ever declaration of a shortage by the federal government.

The latest proposal has yet to be endorsed by all sides in the negotiations. And not everyone at Thursday's meeting voiced support for the plan. But many members of a state-convened steering committee said they think the new compromise proposal looks viable, and with some additional tinkering can serve as the framework for finishing an agreement. 

“We are on the cusp. This is a great framework. There’s a lot of good in it. There are some necessary tweaks,” said Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources. “We are going to have to reconvene this group a number of times before we can get a final proposal.”

Buschatzke said although finishing the deal will take a lot more work in the coming weeks, it needs to be done. 

“We’re getting close,” he said. “It is very important that we find our way to that conclusion so that we can significantly reduce the risks of Lake Mead falling to levels where the lake is extremely unhealthy.

“This is about our future," Buschatzke said. "This is about being proactive. And this is about finding collaborative solutions.”

The Arizona Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan Steering Committee meeting works on a drought contingency plan for the Colorado River at Central Arizona Project headquarters in Phoenix on November 29, 2018.

Ted Cooke, general manager of the agency that manages the Central Arizona Project, agreed that the latest proposal represents major progress in the talks, which have been taking place parallel to a series of meetings since July. 

“I do think there’s a light at the end of the tunnel and we’re getting near,” Cooke said. “We need to have some more meetings soon to finish up.”

Helping give a boost to the proposal was an announcement that Gov. Doug Ducey is seeking $30 million in his budget proposal to support the plan. That funding would add to a $60 million pledge by the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, and would help cover payments to entities that would kick in some of their water to make the plan work.

How to spread the pain

The levels of Lake Mead have fallen dramatically, leaving dried silt on the exposed lakebed.

The disagreements in the negotiations have largely centered on how the cutbacks should be spread around, and on how much water should be freed from other parts of the state to help farmers in Pinal County who have the lowest priority and face the biggest cuts.

Paul Orme, a lawyer representing four agricultural irrigation districts that include about 200 farms, said the districts aren’t ready to take a position on the latest proposal, but they preferred an earlier outline floated by the CAP board

“There still needs to be quite a bit of internal discussion,” Orme said. “I think we are getting very close.”

But he said Pinal County farmers are concerned about how much they would see their water diversions drop under a more severe second-tier shortage. He said they’re also concerned about a lack of clarity on where funding would come from to help them pay for new wells and other infrastructure as they switch to using more groundwater instead of Colorado River water.

“We think the plan is very creative and probably meets the needs of many, but it can be improved upon,” Orme said. 

Cynthia Campbell, Phoenix’s water resource management adviser, said the proposal seems like a good compromise and a framework that could work to get the deal done. 

“I would argue that not meeting everybody’s perfect criteria is the definition of a compromise,” Campbell said. “It needs to have little fixes, but ultimately gets us to a finished product, a DCP that will allow Arizona to take the cuts that we’re going to have to take under the three-state plan in a way that, while not perfect, and difficult for everybody, (is) at least equitable.” 

A shortage looms

Lake Mead is now just 38 percent full. Under the current rules, if the reservoir's water level reaches elevation 1,075 feet above sea level at the end of any year, the federal government would declare a shortage and supplies to Arizona and Nevada would be cut back. 

Federal officials now project that Lake Mead will likely be below that threshold in 2020, triggering the declaration of a shortage. 

The Colorado River has long been overallocated, with the demands of farms and cities exceeding the available water supply, and the strains are being compounded by climate change. Since 2000, the amount of water flowing in the Colorado River has dropped 19 percent below the average of the past century. Scientific research has found that a significant portion of that trend is a result of global warming. 

Water managers in Arizona, California and Nevada have been discussing the proposed Drought Contingency Plan in an effort to boost the levels of Lake Mead and prevent it from falling even further. 

Talks on the plan have been inching along for the past few years, and federal Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Brenda Burman has urged the states and local agencies to finish up their negotiations.

MORE:Controlled flood of the Grand Canyon begins a four-day exercise on the Colorado River

Lake Powell spreads out behind Glen Canyon Dam in Page.

In October, the federal government and states that rely on the Colorado River released drafts of a set of agreements laying out a framework for cuts in water deliveries.

Thursday’s meeting had been scheduled as the Arizona committee’s final gathering, at which point an agreement was to have been nearly done. But Cooke and Buschatzke said they expect to hold more meetings into December to finish a plan so the state Legislature can approve it when lawmakers return in January. 

“We’ll take a day off on Christmas, but the rest of the time, we need to have some more work,” Cooke said.

Federal officials have said they hope to have a deal finished by the annual conference of the Colorado River Water Users Association in Las Vegas in mid-December.

ALLHANDS: Can Central Arizona Project keep Arizona's effort to save Lake Mead intact?

Buschatzke said what he’ll tell counterparts at the conference is that there is support among stakeholders in Arizona and “we have a reasonable path forward to get to the light at the end of the tunnel, the adoption of the DCP.”

“We need to take the time to do a good plan,” Buschatzke said.

He didn’t offer specifics of the remaining areas to be worked out in the discussions. 

But Rob Anderson, a representative of homebuilders, expressed concerns about the plan, citing a lack of “developer mitigation” in the proposal. 

Stefanie Smallhouse of the Arizona Farm Bureau speaks during the Arizona Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan Steering Committee meeting to work on a drought contingency plan for the Colorado River at Central Arizona Project headquarters in Phoenix on November 29, 2018.

And then there are also the misgivings of farmers in Pinal County, including their concerns about the costs of switching from Colorado River water to groundwater. 

Alongside the discussions about cutbacks in water supplies came questions about money, and whether all of the funding will be secured to make the plan workable. 

Ted Kowalski of the Walton Family Foundation voiced support for the proposal.

“We believe that it provides a future for Pinal County ag, but it does it in a way recognizing that we’re in a time of water limits,” Kowalski said. “We think recognizing the fact that we are seeing less water in the system and we are likely to see less water in the future is at the heart of the proposal.” 

Kowalski said the organization has supported “market-based” conservation efforts and would like to see such approaches used more widely across the region. He also offered funding to help make Arizona’s plan work.

“We stand ready with Arizona’s announcement earlier today to help fill that gap that was identified, that $8 million gap,” Kowalski said. 

Some funding from the federal government is also available to support the effort, Cooke said.

'A great step forward'

The Gila River Indian Community would contribute some of the water under the proposal and would receive compensation for that water. Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis expressed gratitude to Ducey for seeking funding to back the plan.

“It is the only viable plan we can see,” Lewis said. 

Lewis said he understands the Pinal County farmers’ concerns about securing funding help to pay for pumps and other infrastructure as they switch to using more groundwater. He pledged to “work with them as they transition to pumps.”

Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis (left) of the Gila River Indian Community speaks as Chairman Dennis Patch of the Colorado River Indian Tribes, listens during the Arizona Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan Steering Committee meeting to work on a drought contingency plan for the Colorado River at Central Arizona Project headquarters in Phoenix on November 29, 2018.

The Gila River Indian Community is entitled to about a fourth of the Colorado River water that passes through the Central Arizona Project canal. 

Lewis has said he would oppose any proposal that undermines the community’s landmark 2004 water settlement. But he said under the latest proposal by the state, that wouldn’t be an issue. 

“Most importantly, Indian water settlements are protected,” Lewis said. “This is a great step forward.”

MORE:Gila River leader wants to help Arizona complete water deal but vows to defend landmark settlement

Arizona is entitled to 2.8 million acre-feet of water from the Colorado River annually. Under the terms of the proposed three-state deal, the state would face cutbacks of 512,000 acre-feet, or 18 percent of the state’s total. 

Nevada and California would contribute by accepting larger water cuts than they would otherwise have to under the current guidelines for shortages. And if the three states all sign on, Mexico has pledged under a separate deal to contribute by temporarily leaving more water in Lake Mead, too.

As the talks in Arizona have stalled amid disagreements during the past several weeks, some participants have voiced worries that the state could turn out to be a deadlocked holdout. 

But Arizona isn’t the only state where the proposed Drought Contingency Plan still faces controversy and potential hurdles. In California’s Imperial Valley, a farmer is waging a legal fight against the Imperial Irrigation District in a struggle for control of the largest share of Colorado River water.

A judge on Thursday turned down a request by farmer Michael Abatti for an injunction to stop the water district from signing the drought plan. 

Superior Court Judge L. Brooks Anderholt warned both sides at a hearing on Wednesday that a protracted fight over water rights could spur action by Congress, or end up before the Supreme Court. He urged them to try to work together. 

“We are a very small place with a lot of water that a lot of other people want,” the judge said. “I would advise the parties to be careful.”

Meanwhile, many of the representatives from Arizona water districts sounded upbeat at the meeting in Phoenix. 

David Roberts of the Salt River Project called the latest proposal “a very creative idea” for solving a challenging water-supply issue.

Several other people who spoke for water districts said they think the latest proposal seems like a workable framework for keeping more water in Lake Mead and trying to prevent the reservoir from falling further. 

Jamie Kelley, general counsel for Mohave County Water Authority, said protecting the levels of Lake Mead is a crucial concern, and the new plan “appears to be a bridge to a drier future.”

Reporter Janet Wilson of The Desert Sun, in Palm Springs, contributed to this article.

Ian James writes about water and the environment for The Arizona Republic. Reach him at ian.james@arizonarepublic.com, 602-444-8246 or on Twitter at @ByIanJames.

Environmental coverage on azcentral.com and in The Arizona Republic is supported by a grant from the Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust. Follow The Republic environmental reporting team at environment.azcentral.com and at OurGrandAZ on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

READ MORE: